Market watch - Home Sales and Prices Expected to Remain Stable in 2026 Amid Ongoing Affordability Pressures

TRREB Releases Highly-Anticipated 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review Report

Toronto, February 4, 2026 -- The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report highlights a housing market shaped by improved buyer choice and affordability, alongside cautious consumer sentiment across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

The report finds that elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check through 2026, while overall home sales activity is forecast to remain within a similar range compared to the last three years, with the potential for improvement later in the year if the economy remains resilient and consumer confidence strengthens.

This year’s sought-after report and interactive digital digest include new Ipsos consumer polling results, insights into homebuying intentions, and TRREB’s outlook on home sales and average prices, alongside research examining housing supply, migration, and affordability pressures across the region.

The 2026 Outlook For 2026, TRREB forecasts:

GTA home sales will range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions. Market activity in the first half of the year is expected to resemble 2025 levels, as many households remain cautious about committing to long-term mortgage payments. If economic prospects and consumer confidence improve in the second half of the year, pent-up demand from the past several years could begin to be satisfied.

The GTA average price forecast range for 2026 is between $1 million and $1.03 million. Elevated inventory levels across most market segments are expected to continue providing buyers with substantial negotiating power, particularly in the condominium apartment market. Average selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half, if buyers start moving off the sidelines and market conditions tighten.

The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found that GTA homebuying intentions for 2026 declined by five percentage points compared to 2025, to 22%, despite improved affordability. This highlights challenges with consumer confidence vis-à-vis current economic uncertainty.

Despite softer overall buying intentions, first-time buyers could be a key driver of recovery in the months ahead. Ipsos polling shows that 45% of intending homebuyers in 2026 will be first-time buyers, underscoring the importance of attainable ownership options.

Ipsos research also points to sustained rental demand across the GTA in 2026, supported in part by continued immigration, with many newcomer households renting before transitioning into homeownership.

Despite improved affordability in the homeownership market, Ipsos found that renter households face a gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments required to purchase the type of home they want. This affordability gap may result in many households remaining in the rental market longer than anticipated.

”The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026. Affordability has improved, but uncertainty continues to weigh on long-term decisions like homeownership. Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld.

“With the cost of borrowing flattening out, affordability gains in 2026 will largely be seen on the pricing front, as buyers continue to benefit from negotiating power. A boost in consumer confidence could see buyers move off the sidelines later this year, which could provide support for home prices as market conditions tighten up,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

The report also includes new research examining the impacts of population growth and migration, traffic congestion, and policy challenges affecting housing delivery across the region, along with recommendations aimed at addressing planning delays, development costs, and barriers within Ontario’s housing and infrastructure systems.

“At TRREB, we focus on actions that can make the greatest impact,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “That means pursuing innovative, future-facing solutions, including planning systems that approve building housing more efficiently, a tax environment that supports affordability, and a long-term commitment to purpose-built rental construction. These elements help create a balanced and predictable housing market, and this increases consumer confidence.”

The 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review Report covers all aspects of the GTA real estate market, including trends for new homes and condominiums, as well as a review of the commercial real estate market.

Ontario - Home Sales and Prices Expected to Remain Stable in 2026 Amid Ongoing Affordability Pressures

Toronto, February 4, 2026 -- There were 3,082 home sales reported in January 2026 – down by 19.3% compared to January 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 10,774 – down by 13.3% yearover-year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite benchmark was down by eight% yearover-year in January 2026. The average selling price, at $973,289, was down by 6.5% compared to January 2025.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2026 home sales were down month-over-month compared to December 2025, while new listings were up slightly. Both the MLS® HPI composite and average price trended lower compared to December.

The 2026 TRREB Market Outlook and Year in Review Report is now available. The report covers all aspects of the GTA real estate market, including trends for new homes and condominiums, as well as a review of the commercial real estate market.

Ottawa- Balanced Conditions Define Ottawa’s Housing Market in January

February 5, 2026 -- Ottawa’s residential market entered 2026 on a balanced footing. Inventory levels remain higher than in recent years, giving buyers more choice, while sellers continue to adjust to conditions that reward accurate pricing and patience. Benchmark prices are down year over year across all housing types, with softer conditions most evident in townhouses and apartments. Detached homes continue to show greater price stability. Overall, January’s data points to a market that is operating more evenly, rather than one under broad-based pressure.

“What January is showing us is a market that’s adjusting in a healthy way,” said Tami Eades, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “We’re seeing more choice for buyers, more realism on the selling side, and pricing that’s responding to those conditions without sharp swings. That kind of balance is a sign of stability, not stress.”

Residential Market Activity
In January, 610 residential properties sold in Ottawa, reflecting a typical post-holiday slowdown while also signalling a steadier start to the year. Sales were 5.6% lower than a year ago but remained within the range of long-term January norms. This points to demand that is still present, even as buyers continue to proceed cautiously amid ongoing affordability considerations.

Pricing activity also reflected seasonal conditions rather than renewed weakness. The average residential sale price was $641,436, down 4.5% from January 2025, a change consistent with winter market dynamics and a more price-sensitive buyer pool. Recent interest rate reductions have begun to ease pressure at the margins. January’s data suggests their impact is appearing first in buyer engagement rather than completed transactions.

The MLS® Home Price Index provides further context. In January, the composite benchmark price declined modestly month over month, with single-family, townhouse, and apartment benchmarks all posting small decreases.

Prices and Market Balance
Supply conditions continue to vary significantly by property type. Overall, new listings totalled 1,522 units, up 8.8% year over year, while active listings reached 2,673. This is an increase of 22.7% from last January. Although inventory levels remain elevated compared to recent seasonal norms, growth has slowed, helping to prevent a buildup of excess supply.

With months of inventory at 4.4, Ottawa’s market is operating closer to long-term, pre-pandemic averages. This level of supply is providing buyers with more choice and negotiating flexibility, while still allowing well-priced homes to attract solid interest. Rather than putting sharp downward pressure on prices, current inventory levels are supporting a more balanced market.

Property Type Breakdown
As noted above, differences in market performance by property type continued to shape Ottawa’s market in January.

Single-Family Homes
Detached homes remained the market’s most stable segment, even as winter conditions weighed on overall activity. In January, 276 single-family homes sold, down 13.8% year over year. Supply levels remained comparatively balanced at 4.3 months of inventory, supported by 1,177 active listings, and 663 new listings, essentially flat year over year. 

Prices softened modestly. The average sale price was $793,874, down 3.6% year over year, while the median price held at $750,000, unchanged from last January. Together, these indicators suggest that detached home pricing is adjusting in an orderly manner. The single-family benchmark price also edged lower year over year, marking a shift from the modest gains seen late last year; the decline remains limited. 

Townhomes
Townhome sales rose to 215 units, up 6.4% year over year, while new listings increased sharply to 487, up 45.8% from January 2025 and well above December’s 176 new listings. Active listings climbed to 708, a 67.0% increase year over year. 

As supply increased, leverage has shifted modestly toward buyers. Months of inventory rose to 3.3, and pricing reflected this adjustment. The average townhouse sale price was $536,106, down 3.3% year over year, while the median price declined 3.4% to $560,000. The townhouse benchmark price was down 3.2% year over year, but rose 1.0% compared to December. 

Apartments
The apartment segment showed a constructive month-over-month shift in January, marking a contrast to late 2025. In January, apartment-condo sales increased to 95 from 78 in December, and months of inventory decreased to 6.8 from 7.9, an indication of stronger absorption.  

At the same time, supply expanded meaningfully. New listings rose to 312 from 144 in December, and active listings increased to 647 from 617. In other words, January brought a sizeable seasonal influx of condo listings, but improved sales activity helped prevent a further deterioration in market balance.  

Pricing in this segment remains the most sensitive anywhere across the Ottawa market. The average apartment sale price was $388,307, down 12.1% from January 2025 and lower than December’s $401,465. While condo pricing continues to adjust, January’s combination of higher sales and lower months of inventory suggests that conditions may be starting to stabilize. 

British Columbia - New year, same housing market in Metro Vancouver

Vancouver, 10 Feb 2026 -- Last year’s market trends continued in January as home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver* were 28.5% lower than last year, setting the year off to a quieter start.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,107 in January 2026, a 28.7% decrease from the 1,552 sales recorded in January 2025. This was 30.9% below the 10-year seasonal average (1,602).

"On their own, the January sales appear alarming, but it’s important to put these figures in the context of the past few years. Last year ended with one of the lowest sales totals in over two decades, and so it’s not surprising that the January sales figures were the fourth slowest in over two decades as well. Market momentum is a slowly evolving force, and in many ways, the January figures represent a market that continues slowly evolving to what may be a new normal." Andrew Lis, GVR chief economist and vice-president, data analytics

There were 5,157 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in January 2026. This represents a 7.3% decrease compared to the 5,566 properties listed in January 2025. This was 19.4% above the 10-year seasonal average (4,318).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 12,628, a 9.9% increase compared to January 2025 (11,494). This is 38% above the 10-year seasonal average (9,153).

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio - January 2026
Detached 6.7%
Attached 11.1%
Apartment 10.3%
Total 9.1%

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2026 is 9.1%. By property type, the ratio is 6.7% for detached homes, 11.1% for attached, and 10.3% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“Our recent 2026 forecast suggests this year is likely to resemble 2025 on many fronts, and we expect sales to remain tepid. When paired with sellers remaining eager to list, inventory will likely remain elevated relative to historical averages and, as a result, we expect prices to finish the year relatively unchanged,” Lis said. “As consumers adjust to the ongoing backdrop of political and economic uncertainty, we expect a degree of pent-up demand to re-enter the market at some point. Whether it will happen in 2026 remains an open question, and we’ll be watching the market closely for signs of improvement.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,101,900. This represents a 5.7% decrease over January 2025 and a 1.2% decrease compared to December 2025.

Sales of detached homes in January 2026 reached 300, a 21.1% decrease from the 380 detached sales recorded in January 2025. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,850,800. This represents a 7.3% decrease from January 2025 and a 1.5% decrease compared to December 2025.

Sales of apartment homes reached 554 in January 2026, a 34.5% decrease compared to the 846 sales in January 2025. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $704,600. This represents a 5.9% decrease from January 2025 and a 0.8% decrease compared to December 2025.

Attached home sales in January 2026 totalled 246, a 23.4% decrease compared to the 321 sales in January 2025. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,043,400. This represents a 5.4% decrease from January 2025 and a 1.2% decrease compared to December 2025.

Alberta - Slow start for high-density homes

Calgary, February 2, 2026 – Calgary reported 1,234 sales in January, a year-over-year decline of 15%, but in line with typical levels of activity for the month. While sales declined across all property types, the steepest declines occurred in higher-density homes.

“Following the typical December slowdown, potential buyers for high-density homes were more hesitant to return to the market in January, as increased supply choice across all aspects of the market has reduced the sense of urgency,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s Chief Economist. “At the same time, sellers were quick to bring their listings onto the market, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 44%, mostly due to shifts in apartment and row-style homes. Overall, this is not entirely uncommon for January, as both buyers and sellers weigh their options ahead of the spring market.”

The rise in new listings compared to sales caused inventory levels to increase to 4,391 units, the highest January level since 2020. However, as with sales, conditions vary by property type, with row and apartment homes facing higher levels of inventory compared to long-term trends. The result is months of supply that range from under three months in the detached sector to five months for apartment-style homes.

Due to declines in the later part of 2025, benchmark prices are lower than levels reported at the start of last year. However, seasonally adjusted figures point to stable levels in January compared to the end of 2025. Nonetheless, year-over-year total residential benchmark prices have declined by nearly five%, as steep declines reported in the oversupplied row- and apartment-style homes weighed on total residential prices compared to last year.

Detached -There were 657 sales and 1,243 new listings in January, comparable to levels reported last year. However, new listings did rise over December levels, causing inventories to reach 1,753 units, just shy of long-term averages for the month. With less than three months of supply and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 53%, conditions remained relatively balanced in the detached market. The January unadjusted benchmark price was $724,000, slightly lower than the previous month and over 3% lower than last January, as prices trended down over the second half of 2025. Price movements varied throughout the city, with year-over-year declines ranging from less than 1% in the West district to over six% lower in the North East. While unadjusted prices did ease over December, this was mostly due to pullbacks in the City Centre and North West districts.

Semi-Detached - There were 118 sales in January and 251 new listings, representing 10% of the market activity in the city. While both sales and new listings improved over December, the growth in new listings was higher, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to ease to 47%. Inventory levels improved, but conditions remained relatively balanced, with three and a half months of supply. Rising supply, which started in the latter part of 2025 and continues into 2026, is creating more price stability. As of January, the benchmark price was $667,000, similar to last month and only one% lower than last January. Year-over-year prices in both the North West and West districts remain higher than last year, but are lower in every other district.

Row - There were 186 sales in January, down by nearly 25% compared to last year. Meanwhile, supply continued to rise both in terms of new listings and inventory growth, causing the months of supply to push above four months. Despite the added supply, the unadjusted benchmark price remained similar to December's levels, but was 5% lower than last January. The month-over-month stability was due to gains in the City Centre and West districts. Year-over-year price adjustments have been the highest in the North East and East districts, followed by the North and South East districts, which have faced significant competition from the new-home market.

Apartment Condominium - Apartment-style units continue to struggle with supply. New listings reached 787 units, which is not as high as last year but a significant jump over December and much higher than the 273 sales reported in January, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 35%. This drove further gains in inventory, which reached 1,435 units, the highest levels ever reported for January. With over five months of supply in January, it is not surprising that prices trended down further. The unadjusted benchmark price was $301,200, nearly 1% lower than the previous month and 8% lower than last January. Prices have been falling across every district, with year-over-year declines ranging from 13% in the North East to six% in the City Centre.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie - While down from last January, sales activity remained relatively strong. With 106 sales and 227 new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 47%, slightly lower than typical for January. This resulted in some further gains in inventory levels, keeping the months of supply just above three months and in line with long-term trends. The unadjusted benchmark price was $513,900, reporting a modest monthly gain consistent with seasonal trends. However, thanks to pullbacks last year, prices remain 5% lower than levels reported in January 2025.

Cochrane - New listings rose to 149 units, the highest level ever reported in January. With only 54 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 36%, causing inventories to rise and keeping months of supply at five months. After several months of slightly higher months of supply, prices have trended down on a month-over-month basis for three consecutive months. As of January, the unadjusted benchmark price was $550,800, nearly two% lower than both December and the start of last year.

Okotoks - Okotoks continues to struggle with lower inventory levels compared to long-term trends, limiting sales activity. January reported 33 sales and 52 new listings, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 63% and keeping inventory levels low at 79 units. The months of supply remained just above two months, and prices remained relatively unchanged compared with the previous month. However, thanks to some price adjustments last year, the total residential benchmark price of $599,500 in January was two% lower than levels reported last year.